Retirement calculator
Will your savings last? Nine numbers, the same engine as the full planner, and an answer across 1,000 simulated markets.
Your numbers
How long the money needs to last.
Until you retire, rising with inflation.
Today’s dollars, before healthcare (added separately).
Your statement’s monthly figure × 12.
Result
51%chance of successAt risk
In 505 of 1,000 simulated markets, your money lasts the whole plan.
With expected returns, your money lasts past age 95.
In 1 market in 10, it runs out by age 79.
| Age | Expected | 10th pct | Median | 90th pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | $230,331 | $199,625 | $228,417 | $264,132 |
| 45 | $370,161 | $270,459 | $361,840 | $488,608 |
| 50 | $534,773 | $366,024 | $515,571 | $742,270 |
| 55 | $728,559 | $469,901 | $689,621 | $1,094,986 |
| 60 | $956,689 | $557,175 | $908,070 | $1,449,108 |
| 65 | $1,136,233 | $569,493 | $1,029,523 | $1,845,971 |
| 70 | $1,072,499 | $351,545 | $906,654 | $1,895,248 |
| 75 | $1,021,161 | $164,230 | $793,984 | $2,091,177 |
| 80 | $952,086 | $0 | $640,731 | $2,102,949 |
| 85 | $856,418 | $0 | $489,821 | $2,219,572 |
| 90 | $726,750 | $0 | $257,483 | $2,114,209 |
| 95 | $560,387 | $0 | $11,848 | $2,236,040 |
- Savings at retirement
- $1,136,233
- Left at age 95 (median market)
- $11,848
- Lifetime taxes
- $633,014
- Social Security, lifetime
- $754,000
RetirementPace is an educational tool, not financial, tax or legal advice. RetirementPace is not a registered investment adviser.
Track whether you stay on pace
A calculator answers today. Pace is whether you’re still on track next month and next year. Save this as a plan in the free planner (it stays in your browser), and soon record your real balances each month to see if you’re ahead or behind.
How it works
The calculator turns your numbers into a plan and runs it through the same engine as the full planner. Each year it pays your salary and adds your savings within the IRS limits, starts Social Security at your claiming age with SSA’s reduction or delayed credits, pays your spending plus healthcare, takes required minimum distributions, and works out the income tax on what you withdraw.
Then it runs the whole plan again in 1,000 simulated markets, each a different sequence of yearly returns. The success rate is the share of those markets in which the money lasts to the age you plan to. The chart shows the middle 50% and 80% of outcomes in today’s dollars, and the dashed line is the plan at expected returns.
What it assumes beyond your answers: savings go to a traditional 401(k); a mix of 70% stocks and 30% bonds; inflation of 2.5%; fees of 0.2% a year; and healthcare of $9,000 a year if you retire before 65 and $6,500 from 65, rising 2% a year faster than inflation.
Worked example
A 40-year-old with $200,000 saved who puts away $18,000 a year on a $85,000 salary, retires at 65, spends $50,000 a year plus healthcare, and claims $26,000 a year of Social Security at 67: the money lasts to 95 in 51% of simulated markets. At expected returns it lasts past 95. Savings at retirement come to about $1,136,233 in today’s dollars.
Questions
What is a good success rate?
There is no single right number. A plan that succeeds in 9 simulated markets out of 10 still fails in 1, and a plan at 70% can often be put right later by spending a little less or working a little longer. RetirementPace calls 85% and above "on solid ground", 70% to 85% "worth a closer look" and anything lower "at risk", and always shows the age the money lasts to as well.
Why is the result the same every time I enter the same numbers?
The 1,000 simulated markets come from a fixed seed, so the same plan gives the same answer on every visit and every device. When you change a number, the difference you see comes from that change, not from random noise.
Does it include taxes?
Yes. Withdrawals pay federal income tax using the IRS brackets and standard deduction (indexed for inflation in years the IRS has not published yet), Social Security is taxed under the federal rules, and a flat 4% of federal taxable income stands in for state tax. Payroll tax comes out of the salary while you work.
Is what I type saved or sent anywhere?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and nothing you type is sent to RetirementPace or anyone else. If you save it as a plan, it is kept in this browser only.
What does this calculator leave out?
A spouse, pensions, part-time work, Roth and taxable accounts, an employer match, one-time costs and Roth conversions. The free planner handles all of them: save this as a plan and add the detail there.